Hockesticks
We are spectacularly bad at predicting technology disruptions. We repeatedly underestimate the power of hockey stick growth curves that converge and flip systems. For example, in the early 1980s, AT&T asked consulting firm McKinsey to estimate how many cellular phones would be in use in the world at the turn of the century. They predicted 900,000. And what really happened? By 2000, there were 109 million mobile phone users. The “experts” were out by a factor of 120. In Africa, it took just six years for mobile phones to go from zero to overtaking the number of fixed lines.
— Wayne Visser
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From Purpose Inspired: Reflections on Conscious Living, Volume 4. Buy on Lulu ↗